Today we’re going to go through where home price appreciation is going in 2022 according to seven leading forecast models. Here are my thoughts on some of the insights from Zillow, Redfin, and Goldman Sachs, and more on 2022 Housing.
Zillow believes home values are going to appreciate over the next year, going up 13.6%. This is a little strange. If Zillow believes homes will appreciate this much, why wouldn’t they hold on to all the properties they purchased?
Goldman Sachs reported that home values were going to go up 16% from October to the end of the year. For the total year, however, they predict homes will appreciate by 13.5%. Zillow and Goldman Sachs have a pretty much identical number. They’re both over 13%, down from the 20% prediction we saw in 2021.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
These two are pretty much the same company. They both predict a 7% appreciation rate.
Redfin is predicting a very conservative appreciation rate of 3% for 2022. Between 3-4% is a pretty typical rate of real estate appreciation.
This company has a ton of data to draw upon, and they are predicting an appreciation rate of just 1.9%.
Mortgage Bankers Association This company believes there’s going to be a 2.5% decline in home values. This forecast is the one outlier that I find interesting because what does the mortgage bankers association see to come to this prediction? Now, if they’re correct, 2.5% is by no means a crash in the market, which went up 20% this year. A 2.5% decline would really be no issue at all, especially because it seems like this winter prices are continuing to go up.
Nobody believes we’ll see 20% home value appreciation in 2022. I don’t think that we’re going to see something as high as Goldman Sachs and Zillow, but certainly up over 5%. There’s too much demand out there to be less than that. Zillow and Goldman Sachs are banking on the first-time homebuyer millennial demand to continue driving the market. Millennials want to buy a home and there just hasn’t been enough inventory. So if there’s inventory available, and if it’s good inventory, millennials are going to snatch it up. I believe we’re going to continue to see the median price points of home values increasing in 2022.
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